Week 11 Provision for the future....Britain's food.

I dont feel qualified to talk of the global situation (yet!) so address the issue with regard to Britain.

What will be the necessary adaptations to create new systems of provision in the future? What has tended to happen historically is that change has happened slowly over decades or even centuries with regard to alterations in the eco system and agricultural practice, and it has taken an act as significant as the Norman conquest to change the infrastructure of society and agriculture profoundly in a short period. The consensus is that the situation with regard to transition from oil is relatively imminent and this means that we have forced upon us a situation where significant changes in the amount of energy we have available to us need to be addressed in the short term.

As Darwin noted, it is not the most intelligent, nor the strongest of species that survive, it is the most adaptable.

Much of the emphasis has been on the local nature of provision as an answer to the shortage of oil for transporting food both by air and by road, which is logical but I think there will continue to be movement of goods by the rail network which is currently being modernised with plans for hugely expensive, (billions £) but probably necessary further high speed rail lines planned in Britain to match those in Japan and France. Food transported in this way should be more expensive, reflecting the actual cost of its movement as well as production but, as Noel pointed out in his lecture, trade will not cease, and there must be a safety net in place for years when in some areas the harvest may fail. The widespread provision of allotments immediately outside cities so that people can grow some of their own food seems likely, and there have been a number of tv programmes devoted entirely to growing food in the past few years which is, I think, no co-incidence.

As discussed recently it seems that a change in our diets to eating less meat and dairy and more in season vegetables will be necessary. Traditionally most people ate bread, cabbages and root vegetables in the winter with meat as a luxury, so the loss of mass production and oil produced herbicides, pesticides and nitrogen based fertilisers on the land and cheap imported food, will return us to a situation that we have survived in the past, albeit with a smaller population. It seems obvious that a far higher percentage of our income (whether that be local or national currency) must be devoted to food in the future. Other countries, such as France, have, in the past, spent 70% of their income on food and that seems a likely figure. Cheap food is not going to be an option unless you grow it yourself.

We will however still need animals such as sheep for the production of warm clothing and textiles in winter as well as manure, which may also be of use as fuel. If we heat our homes less we will need more clothing, and cotton is less efficient than wool and sheepskin for retaining warmth. Cotton has never been grown here so new varieties would have to be developed were this to be considered. Cotton is also a crop which is resource greedy to grow, particularly with regard to water, another factor which makes wool as viable.

I think we will, in the British climate, be able to grow sufficient, if a limited variety of foods on our farmland, even with the continuing increase in average temperature that we have seen in recent decades. With regard to keeping food fresh for short periods 'fridges could be replaced by cool boxes on the north side of homes which work well at current temperatures for 8 months of the year, and keep insects and rodents at bay. Underground ice rooms as used in the US could also be considered to store root vegetable crops such as potatoes and carrots for longer periods during the winter. The ice may have to be initially manufactured but would last many months if stored correctly and would therefore be far more energy efficient than current methods of cooling.

For people who fear change this will be a challenging maybe even miserable time but for those that can adapt it will be time to strengthen community life and trade for mutual support. There is a huge satisfaction in being self sufficient and we have lost that in the last century. It may be actually a cohesive and beneficial influence in returning to that type of society in the future, as mentioned by Nef's well being measures.

I do think there may be initial issues with regard to democracy and equity but only if the transition stage is grossly mishandled by the government. It seems to me they have begun to take the necessary measures to avoid a situation that could lead to civil unrest but that much more needs to be done particularly in terms of real education, so that everyone is aware, not only of the problems facing us but how life will change in real everyday terms and promoting the concept that this can be a positive rather than a threatening change. I also believe there should be some move towards a ruralisation of society, so that most people do have the chance to grow some of their own food.

The education in skills required to live in this new social structure should be swiftly recognised. I suggest that a diploma in sustainable horticulture (14-19) be added to those recently included in the national school curriculum, since it seems this must be useful in the future and could be literally vital.